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证明1:
\begin{align*}
cov(\theta_i,\theta_j) &= E(\theta_i \theta_j) - E(\theta_i)E(\theta_j) \\
&= E\left( E(\theta_i \theta_j |\phi) \right) - \left(E(\theta_i)\right)^2 \\
&= E\left(E(\theta_i |\phi) E(\theta_j |\phi) \right) - \left(E\left (E (\theta_i |\phi)\right)\right)^2 \\
&= E\left( E(\theta_i |\phi)^2\right) - \left(E\left ( E (\theta_i |\phi)\right)\right)^2 \\
&= var\left(E (\theta_i |\phi)\right) \\
&\ge 0.
\end{align*}
证明2:
\begin{align*}
\mathrm{Cov}(\theta_i,\theta_j) &= \int \theta_i \theta_j g(\theta_i,\phi) g(\theta_j,\phi) f_{\phi}(\phi) \ d\theta_i\ d\theta_j\ d\phi - \left(\int \theta_i g(\theta_i,\phi) f_{\phi}(\phi) \ d\theta_i\ d\phi\right)\left(\int \theta_j g(\theta_j,\phi) f_{\phi}(\phi) \ d\theta_j\ d\phi\right) \\
& = \int \theta_i \theta_j g(\theta_i,\phi) g(\theta_j,\phi) f_{\phi}(\phi) \ d\theta_i\ d\theta_j\ d\phi - \left(\int \theta_i g(\theta_i,\phi) f_{\phi}(\phi) \ d\theta_i\ d\phi\right)^2 \\
& = \int \left( \int \theta_i g(\theta_i,\phi) \ d\theta_i \right) \left(\int \theta_j g(\theta_j,\phi) \ d\theta_j \right)f_{\phi} \ d\phi - \left(\int\left(\int \theta_i g(\theta_i,\phi)\ d\theta_i\right) f_{\phi}(\phi) \ d\phi\right)^2\\
& = \int \left( \int \theta_i g(\theta_i,\phi) \ d\theta_i \right)^2f_{\phi} \ d\phi - \left(\int\left(\int \theta_i g(\theta_i,\phi)\ d\theta_i\right) f_{\phi}(\phi) \ d\phi\right)^2\\
& = \int h(\phi)^2 f_{\phi} \ d\phi - \left(\int h(\phi) f_{\phi}(\phi) \ d\phi\right)^2\\
& = \int \left( h(\phi) - \int h(\phi) f_{\phi}(\phi)\ d\phi \right) ^2 f_{\phi} \ d\phi \\
&\ge 0.
\end{align*} |
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